Why Are There So Few First-Time Homebuyers?

Over the past year, just 24% of U.S. home purchases went to first-time buyers*—the lowest share since tracking began in 1981. For context, the 40-year average through 2021 is about 38.4%. Elevated interest rates and stubbornly high prices are a big part of the story—but they’re not the whole story.

It’s Not Only About Prices and Rates

Since 2021, the typical monthly payment on a median-priced home in the greater Seattle area has roughly doubled, even before taxes and insurance.* That alone sidelines many new buyers. But first-time buyers are also navigating other life costs at the same time—often while growing their families.

The Kids + Housing Equation

Many first-time buyers are new (or soon-to-be) parents. According to a recent Wall Street Journal investigative report, the median cost of sending one child to daycare in King County for 4½ years until kindergarten is estimated at $117,482.*

Have two kids? Even if Snohomish County can be modestly less expensive than King, the combined reality of childcare + housing + daily essentials makes saving for a down payment and qualifying for a mortgage much tougher. And it’s not just daycare. The overall cost of raising a child has climbed sharply since 2022, and many baby-related goods are impacted by global supply chains and tariffs—costs that tend to trickle down

to local families.

What We’re Seeing in King & Snohomish Right Now

Condo & Townhome Supply: Inventory is meaningfully higher than for single-family homes—roughly 4–6 months of supply across many sub-markets in King and Snohomish.

Who Feels It Most: First-time buyers are the most sensitive to today’s triple-whammy—home prices, interest rates, and childcare costs.

Why Repeat Buyers Fare Better: Many can leverage built-up equity for larger down payments, are further along in their careers (higher income), and often have kids out of daycare—reducing monthly strain.

Take It Home

First-time buyers in King & Snohomish Counties face a tougher path than they did a few years ago. Prices and rates matter, but so do the real-life costs that arrive at the exact same time people want to buy their first home.

If you—or someone you know—are hoping to buy your first place, I’m happy to walk through starter- friendly options (condos, townhomes, smaller single-family homes), creative financing/credit strategies to discuss with a lender, and timing that matches your budget and life stage. I’m not a financial or legal advisor, so I’ll point you to trusted pros for those conversations—but I can help you map the path. There are special first-time homebuyer programs that help get people in their first home.