Seattle-Area Housing Market: What to Expect in November 2026

The Seattle-area housing market is heading into November with a combination we have not seen very often in recent years: a normal seasonal slowdown layered on top of unusually high inventory.

That distinction matters. November almost always brings fewer new listings, shorter daylight hours, holiday distractions, and a smaller pool of active buyers. But 2026 is entering that quieter season with considerably more homes already on the market than a year ago. The result is not simply “the market is slowing for winter.” It is a market where buyers have more choice going into winter than they have had in years, while sellers face the question of whether reduced new competition will offset the large amount of inventory already sitting on the market.

The latest complete Northwest MLS data available as we head into November is September. Across the NWMLS service area, active listings were up 24.5% year over year, pending sales were down 15.1%, and months of inventory reached 4.44 — the highest September level since 2014. King County inventory was up 31.1%, while Snohomish County inventory was up 44.2%.

November Starts With More Inventory Than Buyers Have Been Used To

The biggest story remains supply.

King County ended September with 8,058 active residential and condominium listings, 31.1% more than a year earlier. Snohomish County finished with 2,967, up 44.2%. At the same time, pending sales fell about 17% in both counties. That combination means buyers are not absorbing inventory as quickly as sellers are adding it.

We covered that shift in our September Housing Market by the Numbers, and it remains the most important backdrop for November. A buyer looking in Shoreline, Kenmore, Bothell, Lynnwood, Kirkland, or North Seattle is far more likely to have several reasonable alternatives than they were a few years ago.

For sellers, that changes the competitive set. The house across the street may not be the only comparison. A buyer can expand a search by a few miles, compare several neighborhoods, or wait for another listing if the current one feels overpriced or needs too much work.

Seasonality Should Reduce New Listings — But Existing Inventory Still Matters

November normally brings fewer new listings. Some homeowners decide they would rather wait until after the holidays, while others simply do not want to manage photography, showings, and moving during the darkest and busiest part of the year.

That reduction in fresh competition can help sellers who remain on the market. A well-priced home that launches in November may face fewer new listings during its first few weeks than the same home would in spring.

But this year begins with a larger backlog. September had the highest active inventory for that month across NWMLS since 2014, so even if new listings decline seasonally, buyers may still have plenty of existing homes to choose from.

That is the main difference between November 2026 and a typical low-inventory November. Sellers may get relief from fewer new listings without getting the full scarcity advantage that traditionally makes late fall feel tighter.

Mortgage Rates Are Still the Biggest Affordability Constraint

Mortgage rates remain the other major force shaping the market.

Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.24% on October 29, down from 7.32% the week before and 7.40% earlier in the month. That recent improvement is welcome, but the rate is still more than a full percentage point above where it was a year ago.

At Seattle-area home prices, that difference matters. Buyers who could comfortably qualify at 6% may need to lower their price range at 7% or accept a meaningfully higher monthly payment. Some buyers remain active but become much more selective about the property they are willing to stretch for. Others simply wait.

That is why I would not expect a modest rate decline by itself to suddenly produce a wave of November demand. If rates continue easing, it can improve affordability at the margin. But the broader environment still favors buyers who are willing to be patient and sellers who understand how sensitive today’s buyers are to monthly payment.

Prices Have Been More Resilient Than the Inventory Numbers Suggest

The interesting part of 2026 is that the increase in inventory has not produced a broad regional price collapse.

King County’s September median across residential homes and condos was $850,000, exactly the same as a year earlier. Snohomish County’s median was $720,000, down only 0.4%. Looking specifically at single-family homes, King County’s median was $949,975, down less than 1%, while Snohomish County remained at $750,000.

That is one reason the phrase “buyer’s market” can be too simplistic. Buyers clearly have more choice and negotiating room, but sellers are not universally facing falling values. The larger change has been in pace, competition, and leverage.

We looked at that distinction in the October 2026 Real Estate Market Update: single-family homes have generally held up better than condos, and local markets can behave very differently even within the same county.

Condos May Continue to Feel Softer Than Single-Family Homes

One of the clearest divides going into November is property type.

King County condos had 7.05 months of inventory in September, with pending sales down 25.2% and closed sales down 24.1% from a year earlier. The median condo price was down about 6%. Snohomish County condos were more balanced, with 4.59 months of inventory.

That difference matters for both buyers and sellers. A Seattle condo seller may be competing with a large number of similar properties, HOA costs, special-assessment concerns, parking differences, and buyer sensitivity to monthly dues. A well-located single-family home in Kenmore or Bothell can still operate in a noticeably tighter environment.

So when someone asks whether November will be “good for buyers” or “bad for sellers,” the answer depends heavily on what kind of property they mean.

Year-End Buyers Are Usually Fewer — But Often More Intentional

The buyer pool typically gets smaller as Thanksgiving and the December holidays approach. Casual browsing declines. Families who wanted to move before the school year have already done so. Some buyers pause until January.

But the people who remain active often have a reason to move.

Job relocations do not stop in November. Leases expire. Divorce, marriage, family changes, downsizing, estate decisions, and financial deadlines do not follow the spring selling season. Some buyers specifically prefer late fall because they expect less competition and more negotiating room.

That can make November demand feel different rather than simply weak. A seller may see fewer showings but a higher share of those visitors being serious. A buyer may encounter fewer bidding wars but still compete for an unusually good new listing.

This is the same basic pattern we anticipated in our October housing-market outlook: fall buyers may be fewer, but they are often more motivated.

Stale Listings Could Become the Best Negotiation Opportunities

November may be particularly interesting for homes that entered the market earlier in the fall and did not sell.

A seller who listed in September or early October may be facing a choice: reduce the price, offer concessions, temporarily withdraw, or carry the home into the holidays. Buyers who are still active can sometimes find more flexibility in those listings than in a brand-new property that has just hit the market.

That does not mean every home sitting for 40 or 60 days is overpriced. Some have unusual layouts, higher price points, tenant complications, condition issues, or simply a smaller buyer pool. But market time becomes more meaningful when inventory is already high and the calendar is moving toward year-end.

For buyers, the question is not just “How long has it been listed?” It is why.

Seller Credits May Matter More Than Simple Price Reductions

With mortgage rates above 7%, affordability is so payment-sensitive that seller concessions can sometimes be more valuable to a buyer than a modest reduction in price.

A seller credit toward closing costs or a lender-approved temporary rate buydown may help a buyer manage the early years of the payment more effectively than shaving a small amount off the sale price. Whether that structure makes sense depends on the buyer’s loan, lender rules, and the seller’s net proceeds, but it is one of the negotiations worth considering in a higher-rate market.

The important thing is not to assume every concession should take the form of a price reduction. Different buyers have different constraints: one may need help with cash at closing, another may care more about repairs, and another may simply want the lowest possible price.

Well-Priced New Listings Can Still Move Quickly

More inventory does not mean every November listing will sit.

A home that is clean, well-presented, correctly priced, and located in a desirable neighborhood can still stand out quickly — especially as the flow of fresh listings slows. Buyers who have been searching for months tend to recognize a good new option immediately.

That is why I would be careful about reading the regional inventory numbers as permission for buyers to wait indefinitely on every house. A stale listing and a compelling new listing are two very different negotiations.

For sellers, the first asking price remains important. November gives less time to recover from an ambitious launch before Thanksgiving and the December slowdown arrive.

The Spring Question Will Start Earlier Than Usual

By November, some sellers are already asking whether they should simply wait until spring 2027.

There are legitimate reasons to do that. More buyers usually enter the market in spring, landscaping looks better, daylight is longer, and some families specifically plan moves around the school calendar.

But spring also tends to bring more competing listings. Waiting only helps if the seller’s individual situation improves more than the market competition does.

The other uncertainty is rates. There is no guarantee that financing will be cheaper by March or April. October itself showed how quickly rates can move: the 30-year Freddie Mac average rose to 7.40% and then eased back to 7.24% by October 29.

A homeowner deciding between November and spring should therefore compare the practical benefits of waiting — repairs, preparation, moving logistics, financial timing — rather than treating spring as automatically superior.

What Buyers Should Watch in November

For buyers, I would watch three things closely: inventory that has been sitting since early fall, mortgage-rate movement, and how quickly genuinely strong new listings attract offers.

If active inventory declines but pending sales remain soft, buyers may continue to have substantial leverage. If rates fall enough to bring more buyers back while new listings taper sharply, the balance could tighten faster than expected.

The local market also matters more than the county average. A $500,000 condo in Seattle can have very different negotiating dynamics from a $900,000 house in Shoreline or a $1.5 million home in Kirkland.

What Sellers Should Watch in November

For sellers, the most useful comparison is not last spring’s sale down the street. It is the homes buyers can choose from today.

How many direct competitors are active? How long have they been listed? Have they reduced their prices? What condition are they in? Which ones are actually going pending?

Those questions matter more in a market where buyers have options. Our September Housing Market by the Numbers showed just how much that choice has expanded, and the October market update showed why pricing and preparation are separating the homes that sell from those that linger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is November usually a slow month for Seattle real estate?

Yes, activity typically slows as the holidays approach. Fewer sellers list and fewer buyers shop compared with spring and summer. But transactions continue throughout the month, and the buyers who remain active are often moving for a specific reason.

Will Seattle-area inventory drop in November?

New listings normally decline seasonally, so active inventory should face downward pressure. The unusual part in 2026 is that the market is starting November with substantially more inventory than a year ago, so a seasonal decline does not necessarily mean buyers will suddenly have limited selection.

Are mortgage rates coming down?

They have eased recently. Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed rate was 7.24% on October 29, down from 7.40% earlier in October. Rates remain volatile and materially higher than they were a year ago.

Are home prices falling in King and Snohomish Counties?

Not dramatically at the countywide level. September’s overall King County median was unchanged from a year earlier, while Snohomish County was down less than 1%. Individual cities and property types can differ substantially.

Do buyers have more negotiating leverage right now?

Generally, yes, particularly on homes that have been sitting, condos with substantial competition, and listings that started too high. That does not mean every seller will negotiate or every new listing is soft.

Should sellers wait until spring 2027?

Not automatically. Spring usually brings more buyers, but also more listings. Waiting makes the most sense when it improves the seller’s own preparation, timing, or financial position rather than simply relying on the season.

The Bottom Line

November 2026 is shaping up to be a quieter market, but not necessarily a tight one.

The normal seasonal slowdown should reduce the flow of new listings and casual buyers. At the same time, the Seattle area is entering that slowdown with unusually high inventory, weaker pending-sales activity, and mortgage rates still above 7%.

That combination favors buyers who are patient and willing to compare properties, especially when a listing has been sitting. Sellers can still succeed, but the homes most likely to perform well are the ones that give year-end buyers a clear reason to act now: strong condition, accurate pricing, good presentation, and terms that make sense in a high-payment environment.

The most important thing to watch in November will be whether inventory falls faster than buyer demand. If it does, the market could tighten somewhat even before spring. If demand remains soft and more unsold inventory carries into winter, buyers may enter December with even more leverage.

For more local housing-market coverage, visit the North End Homes blog. You can also compare this outlook with our October 2026 market outlook, October King & Snohomish County market update, and September Housing Market by the Numbers.

If you are considering buying or selling in North Seattle, North King County, South Snohomish County, or the Eastside, Chris Byler at Windermere Real Estate can help you compare the regional numbers with the competition around a specific home.